Winter natural gas forecast helps planning

Seeing the falling leaves reminds me that it's time to winterize the home, get the furnace checked and find the snow shovels. I also need to plan ahead for my winter heating bills. Weather and natural gas prices are two big factors – along with the temperature I set on my thermostat.

Here is the We Energies forecast for the winter heating season:

If the weather is comparable to last year when the temperature was 6.5 percent warmer than normal and the price of natural gas remains where it is today on the spot market, we can expect average residential customers to pay winter heating costs that are:
• 24 to 25 percent ($190 to $196) less than the most recent 5-year average.
• 4 to 5 percent ($25 to $31) less than the average residential customer paid last winter.
• Less than 9 of the past 10 winters.

Based on normal winter weather and the price of natural gas remaining where it is today on the spot market, we can expect the average residential customer to pay winter heating costs that are:
• 17 to 18 percent ($134 to $140) less than the most recent 5-year average.
• 4 to 5 percent ($25 to $31) more than the average residential customer paid last winter.
• Less than 8 of the past 10 winters.

Last winter, the average residential customer paid $626 in heating costs, which was:
• 23 percent ($188) below the average cost of the previous five winters.
• 26 percent ($219) below the costs of the previous winter.
• 29 percent ($252) below the costs of the most expensive winter (2007-08).
• Less than 9 of the past 10 winters.

I'm hoping the weather is at least as warm as last winter so I pay less, but I won't be surprised if it returns to normal, which means I may be paying a little more than last year.